Could Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones match the best Year 2 quarterback breakout seasons in NFL history?

The first round of the 2021 NFL draft saw the selection of five quarterbacks. Justin Fields (Bears), Mac Jones (Patriots), Zach Wilson (Jets), and Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) all played a considerable amount of time as rookies. Only a few spot starts were made by 49ers quarterback Trey Lance, but third-round pick Davis Mills finally claimed the starting job with the Texans. Last season, rookies completed little over 12% of all passes that we observed in regular-season games.

These quarterbacks weren’t all that talented. Four of the five first-round rookies had Total QBR rankings of 26th or lower out of the 31 eligible passers. Only Jones, who placed 16th in the league, wasn’t among the worst six. Lance didn’t play enough to be eligible, but it’s obvious that this collection of potential stars hopes to advance in 2022.

For supporters of these young passers, the good news is that the Year 2 breakout almost feels like a requirement. Two second-year quarterbacks have won MVP awards in the last five seasons, with a third being narrowly denied by an injury. Another second-year quarterback had the single biggest improvement we’ve ever seen, and a fifth came within one drive of winning Super Bowl LVI.

Which of the six sophomore quarterbacks who are projected to start for their club in 2022 will shine? To get a feel of what those quarterbacks looked like after their rookie seasons, I looked at famous Year 2 breakouts from previous seasons in an effort to find an answer to that question.

Since passing figures are at all-time highs, it is not always possible to compare quarterbacks across eras, so we must evaluate them against their rivals rather than utilizing bare numbers. In light of this, I’m utilizing an indexed metric from Pro Football Reference called adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A+) to contextualize throwing performance.

ANY/A, a superior form of passer rating, incorporates yards lost on sacks as well as more precise weights for touchdowns and interceptions. After then, the indexing puts the statistic on a simple scale, making a score of 100 ANY/A+ the league average for any particular season. Accordingly, 115 would be a respectable season and 130 would be an amazing campaign. Likewise, an ANY/A+ of 85 would be disappointing while an ANY/A+ of 70 would be excellent.